June 2026 estimations

The KEPE monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties (see also Tsouma, E. [2016], Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in Greece, Applied Economics Quarterly, 62 [2], 85-105). It provides early evidence on the course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic aggregates. 

According to recent observations for the period November 2025–March 2026, the evolution of the CLI was characterized by upward and downward fluctuations, exhibiting an intermediate variability. At the same time, in March 2026 it recorded a new maximum level for the total period of investigation, confirming the overall upward trend observed. As a result, the course of the CLI seems to signal favorable expectations and assessments by economic agents, providing leading indications for upcoming improvement in future economic conditions, despite the inflationary pressures and, in particular, persistent geopolitical risks.

In any case, in the current fragile international conjuncture characterized by uncertainty, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI, with the aim of acquiring additional evidence. The inclusion of new data is expected to demonstrate the continuation or interruption of the observed trends regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.  

Notes: The lag in the data is associated with the availability of statistics, while data for building activity stops in February 2026.