October 2026 estimations

The KEPE monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties (see also Tsouma, E. [2016], Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in Greece, Applied Economics Quarterly, 62 [2], 85-105). It provides early evidence on the course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic aggregates.

According to recent observations for the period April 2026–July 2026, the CLI recorded a generally upward trajectory, except for June 2026. At the same time, in July 2026 it reached a new maximum level for the total period of investigation, confirming the overall favorable evolution observed. As a result, the path of the CLI signals positive dynamics regarding the expectations and assessments of economic agents, providing leading indications for upcoming improvement in future economic conditions, despite the inflationary pressures and, in particular, persistent geopolitical risks. Nevertheless, in the current fragile international conjuncture characterized by uncertainty, it is necessary to re-estimate the CLI to obtain additional evidence. The inclusion of new data is expected to demonstrate the continuation or interruption of the observed trends regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.

Note: The lag in the data is associated with the availability of statistics, while data for building activity are available only until June 2026