KEPE Composite Leading Indicator


May 2024 estimations


TThe KEPE monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties (see also Tsouma, E. [2016], Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in Greece, Applied Economics Quarterly, 62 [2], 85-105). It provides early evidence on the course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic aggregates. According to the most recent observation for February 2024, the CLI recorded an increase, following the increase of the preceding period of reference, and remains at high levels for the total period of investigation. The respective development seems to confirm the interruption of the recent downward trend of the CLI and the transition to a rising path. As a result, it reflects a further enhancement of expectations and assessments by agents involved in economic activity, again offering leading indications for an intermediate improvement in future economic conditions. On that basis, any adverse impact due to the rise of geopolitical risks is not considered to be predominant. In order to acquire additional evidence, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI. The inclusion of new data is expected to offer further information regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.


Notes: The lag in the data is associated with the non-availability of more recent data for building activity.