September 2024 estimations

The KEPE monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties (see also Tsouma, E. [2016], Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in Greece, Applied Economics Quarterly, 62 [2], 85-105). It provides early evidence on the course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic aggregates. According to the most recent observation for June 2024, the CLI once again recorded an increase, reaching a new maximum level for the total period of investigation. The ongoing favorable course of the CLI reflects the enhancement of expectations and assessments by agents involved in economic activity, offering leading indications for improvement in future economic conditions. On that basis, any adverse impact due to inflationary pressures and persistent geopolitical risks is not considered to be predominant. In order to acquire additional evidence, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI. The inclusion of new data is expected to offer further information regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.

Notes: The lag in the data is associated with the non-availability of more recent data for building activity.