October 2025 estimations

The KEPE monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties (see also Tsouma, E. [2016], Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in Greece, Applied Economics Quarterly, 62 [2], 85-105). It provides early evidence on the course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic aggregates. According to the most recent observation for July 2025, the CLI recorded an increase, following the decrease of the preceding period of reference, reaching a new maximum level for the total period of investigation. The respective development does not provide clear indications and could be part of the intermediate variability of the CLI. Alternatively, it might signal the return to favorable expectations and assessments by agents involved in economic activity, providing a first leading indication for an upcoming improvement in future economic conditions, despite the inflationary pressures and persistent geopolitical risks. In any case, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI, with the aim of acquiring additional evidence. The inclusion of new data is expected to demonstrate the continuation or interruption of the observed trends regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.

Notes: The lag in the data is associated with the non-availability of more recent data for building activity.