KEPE Composite Leading Indicator


January 2024 estimations


The KEPE monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is constructed based on a dynamic factor model, using six selected monthly economic series assumed to have leading properties (see also Tsouma, E. [2016], Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in Greece, Applied Economics Quarterly, 62 [2], 85-105). It provides early evidence on the course of and any turns in Greek economic activity, ahead of the developments in major economic aggregates. According to the most recent observation for October 2023, the CLI recorded a decrease, following the marginal decrease of the preceding period of reference, while it remains at high levels for the total period of investigation. The respective development seems to provide indications for a reversal of the, until recently, increasing course of the CLI. In that case, it might signal less favourable expectations and assessments by agents involved in economic activity, offering leading indications for an intermediate suspension of the improvement in future economic conditions. These indications are probably related to the rise of geopolitical risks, as a consequence of the armed conflict between Hamas-led Palestinian militant groups and Israel. In order to acquire additional evidence, it becomes necessary to re-estimate the CLI. The inclusion of new data is expected to offer further information regarding the course of future domestic economic activity.


Notes: The lag in the data is associated with the non-availability of more recent data for building activity.