No. 76. ANALYSIS OF GREEK EXTERNAL TRADE: SECTORAL ANALYSIS, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES, EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH, 2000-2014. (in Greek)
I. Konstantakopoulou. 2015. | ISBN: 978-960-341-112-3
This study examines the external trade of the Greek economy, identifies the sectors or products with strong competitive advantages and the dynamic export sectors, and finally, investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth.
The study is structured as follows:
In Chapter 2, we provide a descriptive analysis of the Current Account and its components (Trade balance, Services balance, Income balance and Current Transfers balance). Moreover, we study the stylized facts of the Current Account.
In Chapter 3, we study the structure of the export and import of goods. We investigate the export performance and the export coverage ratio at the 2-digit and 3-digit SITC level. Moreover, we detect the most dynamic export sectors or products of Greek economy. We examine the geographical structure of Greek imports and exports and carry out a detailed study of trade flows in different countries as well as the composition of exports and imports of products to different countries. The statistical data used for our analysis come from the EL.STAT. (Hellenic Statistical Authority) and the Comtrade UN (United Nations) for the period 2000-2014. For the analysis by sector, we used data in two-digit and three-digit classification level according to the Standard International Trade Classification Rev.3 (SITC).
In Chapter 4, we investigate the competitiveness of exports and comparative advantages in Greek economy. To identify the comparative advantages, we use the index of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), the index of Vollrath, and the Trade Balance Index (TBI). The evaluation of the comparative competitive advantages of the 2-digit and 3-digit SITC sectors of each country is carried out with respect to other Euro area countries, to detect the 2-digit and 3-digitc SITC sectors of each country that are competitive.
In Chapter 5, we investigate the causal relationship between exports and economic growth by examining causality at different horizons. Multi-horizon causality is based on the Dufour and Renault (1998) notion of causality which is an extension of the original definition of Granger (1969) causality and is equivalent to linear predictability at higher forecast horizons. To this end, we use the Dufour et al. (2006) statistical procedure of (p, h) – autoregressions. We use annual data supplied by the World Development Indicators of the World Bank for the period 1960-2014 for the euro area countries .
Finally, in Chapter 6, we present the results of the study, and the proposals of economic policy.