KEPE’s composite leading indicator of Greek economic activity (CLI-GR)

The monthly Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) of KEPE is constructed on the basis of a dynamic factor model, using selected monthly indicators assumed to have leading properties (see also Tsouma, E. (2016), Constructing a Composite Leading Indicator of Economic Activity in Greece, Applied Economics Quarterly, 62 (2), 85-105). It provides early evidence of turns in Greek economic activity ahead of the corresponding turns in aggregate measures. According to the most recent observation for September 2019, the CLI records once again an increase, for the ninth consecutive period. Remaining on a rising course, the Indicator has clearly surpassed the highest level recorded during the more recent period, in particular since the onset of the economic crisis, namely in the month of August 2018. In addition, it has reached the levels recorded in mid-2008, whereby the Indicator, as a leading indicator, was at that time already recording a downward course. The observed stable rising path of the CLI provides strong evidence in favor of the argument that the related increase more definitely signals the reversal of the downward adjusting course, which had begun in September 2018. As a result, the observed recovery of the CLI constitutes an early indication of a future enhancement of the stabilizing and improving trends in economic activity in the country, at least in the short-run, on the basis of its leading feature. For a better and more accurate assessment regarding the continuation or interruption of the prevailing trends, it is necessary to re-estimate the CLI with all the available information as soon as new data are published.

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  • KEPE’s composite leading indicator of Greek economic activity (CLI-GR)
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