No. 39. THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM AND THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS IN GREECE (in Greek)
L. Athanassiou. 2002. | ISBN: 960-341-043-8
Previous studies regarding the economic prospects of the greek social security system have been based upon demographic projections of the number of pensioners in relation to the number of gainfully occupied and contributing. Because of the decreasing fertility and birth rates over the past and the increases in life expectation such projections, especially when carried out on the basis of the 1991 population census, show a continuously increasing relationship of the number of pensioners as compared to the number of the active and gainfully occupied. Economic calculations on the basis of such projections lead to very disappointing conclusions as regards the economic viability of the current system thus showing the need for an extensive reform.
In the study the prospective number of pensioners is estimated on demographic basis, using the survival ratios tables of the greek population as it is done in the previous studies. The estimates, however, of the number of the active and gainfully occupied who constitute the source of revenues of the greek pay-as-you-go social security system, are not derived through the demographic approach alone. The growth prospects of the greek economy and its capacity to create jobs along with the prospects of growth in labour productivity are also examined, on the assumption that the capacity of the greek population to supply labour will not constrain the growth prospects in question. On the assumption that economic forces will be preeminent in the determination of employment and labour participation, the calculations presented in the study show that the ratio of pensioners to the active and gainfully occupied can be kept within limits acceptable from the pint of view of the economic viability of the system, without excessive immigration figures.
The study does not question the need for an extensive reform of the greek social security system. It raises however a number of serious issues as regards the scope and purpose of such a reform and its likely contribution the development process.