NO. 159. IS THE EXPORT-LED-GROWTH HYPOTHESIS ASSYMETRIC IN THE EURO AREA COUNTRIES?

I. Konstantakopoulou. 2024.

This paper examines the asymmetric effect of exports on economic growth over the short and long run in the Euro Area countries. To this end, I employ a cointegrating Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model suggested by Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014), using annual data from 1980 to 2022

The findings indicate that exports react differently to increases and decreases over the long run in Italy and the Netherlands and in the short run in Austria – an effect previously ignored in the empirical literature. Finally, the elasticity of adverse shocks of exports on economic growth is significantly greater than that of positive export shocks.

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